Canada entered 2025 expecting a moderate slowdown in study permit volumes. The most recent data shows that reality overshot every internal projection at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) — in the wrong direction.
The Canadian education system is clearly going through a deep adjustment, with real consequences for international students, for institutions, and for the labour market itself.
Plan vs. reality: what went wrong?
For 2024, IRCC had already brought in strict measures with the stated goal of cutting international student admissions by roughly 33%. That target was met.
For 2025, the plan was gentler: a further drop of just 10% against the previous year. Reality turned out very differently.
📉 Only 29,300 study permit applications were recorded — a figure far below expectations, and even below 2021 levels, when COVID-19 was still restricting international mobility.
What explains such a steep fall?
Over recent months IRCC introduced a series of near-simultaneous changes, including:
- The creation of the Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) for studying in Canada
- Caps on the number of admissions per province
- A review of the fields of study eligible for the PGWP
- Tighter rules on open work permits for students' spouses
- Programme cuts and a reshuffling of eligibility criteria
Although these changes were aimed at "balancing the system", they ended up creating uncertainty and practical barriers, driving students from many countries away.
Consequences already visible
The effects are arriving quickly:
- Post-secondary institutions report cancelled cohorts and suspended programmes
- There is a drop in revenue at universities and colleges, private ones especially
- Sectors that depend on international students — restaurants, retail and service chains — are already feeling it
- The supply of labour for entry-level roles has shrunk, affecting the job market
Put another way: Canada's international education system, which sustained thousands of jobs and services, has entered a crisis of adjustment.
A plan that may have backfired?
IRCC's original intention was legitimate: curb abuse of the system, improve the quality of admissions and ease the pressure on housing and infrastructure.
But by restricting too much, too fast, the plan may have become an own goal, with economic and social effects wider than anyone anticipated.
The government now has to weigh its next steps carefully: 📉 reducing international student numbers does help contain housing pressure, but it damages several sectors economically and weakens the immigration ecosystem itself.
What to expect from here?
There is no sign the old, more open system is coming back any time soon. At the same time, the new model is still being built, and should keep being adjusted until it settles.
Turas Immigration will continue to follow every update closely and advise clients based on the most current and realistic scenarios.
📩 Unsure how these changes affect your plans to study in Canada? Get in touch with the Turas Immigration team for a personalised assessment.
📅 Book a consultation with a specialist
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